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Croatia Tourism Report Q3 2010

May 18, 2010

In regards to the number of foreign tourist arrivals, 2008 and 2009 were uninspiring years.




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Tourism Overview

In regards to the number of foreign tourist arrivals, 2008 and 2009 were uninspiring years. After a weakening in foreign arrivals growth in 2008 of just 1% year-on-year (y-o-y), the situation deteriorated in 2009 with negative annual growth of 1% to less than 9.3mn visitors. Domestic tourism fared far worse however, with tourist numbers down by 13% compared with 2008. Due to the dominance of foreign visitors, overall tourism numbers fell by a more modest 3% y-o-y in 2009. Among the top source markets, Germany, Italy, Austria and Poland all provided positive growth in the number of visitors in all accommodation establishments, while arrivals from Slovenia, the Czech Republic, France and the UK fell. Data for January 2010 show foreign tourist arrivals were down by 24% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by 14%. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by nearly 19% y-o-y.

Hospitality

After a weak performance in the hospitality sector in 2008, the outturn in 2009 was poor, with a slight fall of 1% y-o-y in the total number of tourist nights, to nearly 56.3mn. The number of foreign tourist nights (90% of the total) declined marginally to 50.5mn, with the average number of nights per tourist at 5.4 nights. The number of domestic tourist nights fell by 10% y-o-y to about 5.8mn. Only two key foreign source markets, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, showed slight falls y-o-y in tourist nights. Total tourist nights fell by over 16% y-o-y in January 2010, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 24% and 10% y-o-y respectively.

Industry Forecast Scenario

We have revised up our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 to positive growth of 3% y-o-y, up from 1% growth in our previous report. Underlying this forecast is mild economic recovery in major source markets, with the eurozone tentatively emerging from recession in 2010 and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011. Also, we believe the Croatian kuna’s relative stability against the euro over the next few years will help support the competitiveness of the tourism sector for foreign visitors from the eurozone.

Air Passenger Traffic

Indicative of a weaker tourism year, international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers was down by 12% y-o-y in 2009. At Zagreb Airport, the main international airport in Croatia and the primary hub for the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines, total passenger numbers fell by 6% y-o-y to under 2.1mn. During the first two months of 2010, passenger traffic at the airport remained poor, down by 9% y-o-y.

Adris Group

Data for the domestic hospitality operator Adris Group for the first nine months of 2009 show its total income reached HRK2.58bn (US$520mn), unchanged co


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