Democracy Watch, 2011 - Issue 41

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(Free-Press-Release.com) December 26, 2011 -- In the run up to the Summit the government of Ukraine were quite optimistic about the initialling of the Association Agreement. On December 14th Andriy Klyuev, First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, stated that the Agreement had been fully prepared and would be initialled during the Summit. Earlier, on October 20th, Ukraine and the EU agreed on the basic parameters of the trade section of the Association Agreement after having completed preparations for the free trade zone initiated in 2008(1).

The Court of Appeal did not allow Tymoshenko to appeal against her incarceration prior to the Summit. The appeal against her guilty verdict will be considered on December 20th meaning that Tymoshenko's release will still be hanging in the air throughout the Summit. The government of Ukraine seems to have adopted an intransigent attitude over the case of the ex-prime-minister. Even a meeting between President Yanukovych and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, did not affect the situation.

Realising the impact of such a decision by the Court of Appeal, Oleh Voloshyn, press secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, mentioned that the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU would most likely not be initialled on the 19th. He also added that there will be no fundamental changes due to this. Finalising negotiations is the most important thing(2).

Early in December the European Parliament adopted a resolution recommending that the Council of European, the European Commission and the European External Action Service initial the Association Agreement with Ukraine before the end of the year. It shows that the European Union is still open to closer relations with Ukraine, as the Association Agreement is a tool for deeper bilateral relations. The Summit has been given a primary role in securing these relations. A deputy of the European Parliament, Pavel Zalevsky, commented on the recommendations, stating that the EU is not making any new conditions, reminding that the ratification of the document is directly dependent on the establishment of safeguards for democracy in Ukraine. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine took this decision as a positive sign. President Viktor Yanukovych has said that the decision of the European Parliament was good news for Ukraine and that he would try to solve problems highlighted in the resolution(3).

The Summit has not brought any results but has set the record straight. The Parties announced the completion of negotiations over the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU. But this did not end an initialling, which would have otherwise allowed the establishment of a free trade area between Ukraine and the EU. According to the government of Ukrainian, particularly Andriy Klyuev, this process should take little more than a month. In reality though the initialling might be substantially delayed if new gas agreements with Russia distract Ukraine from establishing a free trade area with the EU(4).

Jose Barroso, President of the European Commission, and Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, also reaffirmed that the success of the Association Agreement would depend on the implementation of Ukraine’s democratic reforms. The Summit has shown that EU is not prepared to compete for Ukraine with Russia. Ukrainian authorities in their turn evidence a preference for securing their own political ambitions and short-term economic gains over securing Ukraine's perspectives as a part of Europe.

It is no wonder that the government's decisions in conjunction with foreign affairs of Ukraine do not find much understanding among the people of Ukraine. According to a recent survey of public opinion 47% of the population think that the current foreign policy of Ukraine contradicts the national interests whilst 32% believe that it at least partially contradicts.

Sociological surveys held before the Summit revealed how the people of Ukraine felt about deeper relations with EU. 45% of respondents supported European integration and 34,2% were against it. A lot of people (20,7%) refused to answer the question. 56% of respondents noticed that the government's actions did not follow their declarations on the European integration of Ukraine (12% think the opposite). 37% stated that they would personally benefit from Ukraine joining the EU. 26% said that it would harm them. 27% of respondents believe that they would benefit from Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. 23% said that that union would be damaging for Ukraine. Besides these issues respondents were asked to evaluate the availability of information about the EU. 46% believe it to be average, 36% - low and only 4% - high(5). The statistics shows that Ukrainians support European integration little more than they support the Customs Union. But one third of the population has not yet made up their mind. This creates high risk for the manipulation of public opinion on the issue.

Without a doubt, the responsibility for the poor results of the Summit rest on Ukraine rather than the EU or Russia. External factors no matter how powerful they might be have always been secondary. The Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Jose Teixeira has said that the European Union has given Ukraine billions of hryvnias in technical aid over the past 10 years. He believes that if Ukrainian authorities had used it for its intended purpose, Ukraine would have been a totally different country by now(6).

(1) http://news.liga.net/news/economics/576969-klyuev_soglashenie_o_zst_s_es_budet_parafirovano_19_dekabrya.htm
(2) http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2011/12/14/6837244/
(3) http://tyzhden.ua/News/36648
(4) http://news.liga.net/news/politics/579488-podgotovka_parafirovaniya_soglasheniya_s_es_zaymet_neskolko_nedel.htm
(5) http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2011/12/14/6837352
(6) http://nk.org.ua/news/view/8116

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