America's obesity epidemic could abruptly end the pattern of steady gains in life expectancy seen in modern times, scientists warn in a new report.
March 18, 2006 (Press Release) --
Some experts still believe there's reason for optimism.
While an obesity-related reduction in life expectancy is plausible, it is unlikely given offsetting forces that include increased public health education and continuing medical advances, explained Richard M. Suzman, the NIA's associate director for Behavioral and Social Research.
What's more, obesity's effect may already be reflected in life expectancy, he suggested. It may be one reason why gains in U.S. life expectancy at older ages have been less than those of other developed countries in recent years.
"I think there's plenty of head room for life expectancy to continue increasing," Suzman reasoned. He is more concerned about the effects of obesity on disability rates and wishes the authors had spent more time examining this aspect.
Samuel H. Preston, a professor of demography at the Population Studies Center of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, also questioned the authors' gloomy forecast for longevity. "Hundreds of factors affect a population's rate of death in any particular period, and it is their combined effect that establishes the trend," he wrote in an editorial appearing in the same issue.
Still, he conceded, obesity's rising prevalence and severity could offset positive influences on longevity. "A failure to address the problem could impede the improvements in longevity that are otherwise in store."
The prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults has risen by about 50 percent per decade since 1980, the authors note. Today, two-thirds of adults are overweight or obese. As a result, a growing percentage of the population is at risk for type 2 diabetes, heart disease, cancer and other diseases.
To estimate the overall effect on life expectancy, Olshansky and his colleagues calculated the reduction in death rates that would occur if everyone who is currently obese would shed enough weight to achieve an ideal body mass index.
Based on that analysis, the authors estimated that life expectancy at birth would be 0.33 to 0.93 of a year higher for white men and 0.30 to 0.81 of a year higher for white women. Black men would live 0.30 to 1.08 years longer, and black women would gain 0.21 to 0.73 of a year. Overall, life expectancy would rise one-third to three-fourths of a year if obesity didn't exist, they said.
In other words, that is only the current negative effect of obesity. But if policymakers and public health officials respond to the impending danger that obesity poses, it is not an inevitable consequence, the authors noted.
"In the final analysis, we hope our forecast is wrong because we begin to recognize the significance of the health crisis and act now," Olshansky said. "If we fail, then today's younger generation could live shorter and less healthy lives than that of their parents' generation."
Source: http://www.msn.com/
While an obesity-related reduction in life expectancy is plausible, it is unlikely given offsetting forces that include increased public health education and continuing medical advances, explained Richard M. Suzman, the NIA's associate director for Behavioral and Social Research.
What's more, obesity's effect may already be reflected in life expectancy, he suggested. It may be one reason why gains in U.S. life expectancy at older ages have been less than those of other developed countries in recent years.
"I think there's plenty of head room for life expectancy to continue increasing," Suzman reasoned. He is more concerned about the effects of obesity on disability rates and wishes the authors had spent more time examining this aspect.
Samuel H. Preston, a professor of demography at the Population Studies Center of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, also questioned the authors' gloomy forecast for longevity. "Hundreds of factors affect a population's rate of death in any particular period, and it is their combined effect that establishes the trend," he wrote in an editorial appearing in the same issue.
Still, he conceded, obesity's rising prevalence and severity could offset positive influences on longevity. "A failure to address the problem could impede the improvements in longevity that are otherwise in store."
The prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults has risen by about 50 percent per decade since 1980, the authors note. Today, two-thirds of adults are overweight or obese. As a result, a growing percentage of the population is at risk for type 2 diabetes, heart disease, cancer and other diseases.
To estimate the overall effect on life expectancy, Olshansky and his colleagues calculated the reduction in death rates that would occur if everyone who is currently obese would shed enough weight to achieve an ideal body mass index.
Based on that analysis, the authors estimated that life expectancy at birth would be 0.33 to 0.93 of a year higher for white men and 0.30 to 0.81 of a year higher for white women. Black men would live 0.30 to 1.08 years longer, and black women would gain 0.21 to 0.73 of a year. Overall, life expectancy would rise one-third to three-fourths of a year if obesity didn't exist, they said.
In other words, that is only the current negative effect of obesity. But if policymakers and public health officials respond to the impending danger that obesity poses, it is not an inevitable consequence, the authors noted.
"In the final analysis, we hope our forecast is wrong because we begin to recognize the significance of the health crisis and act now," Olshansky said. "If we fail, then today's younger generation could live shorter and less healthy lives than that of their parents' generation."
Source: http://www.msn.com/
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