Industrial output in Bangladesh on upward curve

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Bangladesh’s manufacturing activities registered a robust growth during the first half of the current fiscal year.
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March 25, 2006 (Press Release) -- Bangladesh’s manufacturing activities registered a robust growth during the first half of the current fiscal year, with both export and domestic market oriented sectors performing better on the back of increased credit support.
Official data showed quantum index of medium and large scale factory output surged 14 per cent over a year-ago period, jumping to 320.67 points in July-December 2005 from 281.13 points in the corresponding period last fiscal.
The output sharply rebounded in December 2005 as the general index soared to 341.84 points from 295.75 in November, showed the data of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
The industrial credit inflow registered 16.8 per cent growth during the first half of the current fiscal year and term lending stood at Tk 4946.15 crore in the period, according to central bank figures.
Jute, apparel, leather and wooden products including furniture registered double-digit growth during the period.
The sub-indices of ‘wood product including furniture’ registered 23.87 per cent growth, followed by ‘jute, cotton, woven apparel and leather’ that showed 18.07 per cent growth in July-December 2005.
The output of paper, paper products, food and beverage, non-metallic items also maintained steady increase.
But real industrial activities are still underreported as the government’s statistical wing has not yet revised the manufacturing calculation method with boarder coverage of sample survey.
Economists have time and again argued that without re-basing, the quantum index could not be able to reflect more real scenario of the industrial sector which has already gained a momentum.
In the previous fiscal, overall index registered 6.85 per cent growth over the year back.
If the current trend continues, the medium and large industry output will hit double-digit growth towards the end of the fiscal year, a local research organization forecast.
The Centre for Policy Dialogue, in its half-yearly review of the economy, earlier said that manufacturing growth would moderate in coming days.
‘Taking notes of recent investment trend, expressed through term loan disbursement and capital machines imports, one may venture to project a moderate manufacturing growth in the coming days,’ said the CPD analysis.
‘However, fall in the export demand and contractionary monetary policy may very well discount this prospect,’ it added.
The central bank figure showed that fresh opening of letters of credit for importing industrial raw materials jumped 342.4 per cent in the July-January period of the current fiscal year over the same period of last fiscal.
But, import L/Cs for capital machinery dropped by 42 per cent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year.
Moreover, growth of credit inflow to the private sector dropped slightly to 9.52 per cent in the period from 10.57 per cent a year back, showed the central bank figures.
As the Bangladesh Bank has continued to pursue tight monetary stance, overall credit to the private sector may slow in near future, apprehend businessmen.


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