Bearings forecasts for 2011 & 2016

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US bearing demand to reach $11 billion in 2011. Ball, roller and plain bearing demand is forecast to rise 3.2% annually through 2011 to $11.0 billion.
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July 4, 2007 (Press Release) -- US bearing demand to reach $11 billion in 2011. Ball, roller and plain bearing demand is forecast to rise 3.2% annually through 2011 to $11.0 billion. Suppliers will benefit from largely favorable economic conditions, with an acceleration in aerospace equipment industry output and an upturn in motor vehicle production driving associated bearing demand. In addition, a pickup in nonresidential investment expenditures will help bolster demand for bearings used in both original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and maintenance/repair/operations (MRO) applications. Market gains will be constrained by a deceleration in overall durable goods shipments as US-based firms continue to move production operations to China and other areas where labor costs are lower. In addition, average bearing life has significantly increased due to the use of improved product designs, better-quality materials -- including cleaner, stronger steels -- and better lubricants, which will dampen growth in aftermarket demand. However, a shift in product mix toward more expensive, better performing products will provide a counterbalance, supported in part by high energy prices, making highly efficient bearings a more attractive investment. Shipments of bearings from US plants are also expected to keep pace with domestic demand. Industry output will be stimulated by generally healthy domestic sales conditions and rising bearing demand in a number of export markets. Further investment in US bearing plants by foreign firms will also support production gains.

US bearing manufacturers’ ongoing efforts to improve the quality and performance of their products, and to heighten the efficiency of their business operations, will also help spur output growth, as will a trend from selling simple components to selling more advanced, higher value added systems that incorporate bearings and associated components.

Plain bearings to exhibit strongest growth

The best market gains through 2011 will be seen in unmounted plain bearings, benefitting from renewed strength in US production of aerospace equipment and motor vehicles, which represent major plain bearing markets. Plain bearings are also less costly than rolling-element types, helping fuel sales as improvements continue in plain bearing designs.

Demand for bearing parts and unmounted roller bearings will climb at aboveaverage rates as well. Bearing parts sales will be driven by increases in US output of finished bearings and the number of bearing-containing products (aircraft, automobiles, industrial equipment, etc.) in use, while roller bearing demand will be stimulated by higher production levels in industries like motor vehicles and turbines, with an acceleration in capital spending activity supporting increases in both OEM and aftermarket demand.

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