The havoc that the monsoon plays in Mumbai and Kolkatta or Gujarat is an annual happening and the rulers of the State usually throw up their hands in the air.
July 5, 2007 (Press Release) --
The monsoon appears to be in full force in large parts of the country, especially western, eastern and southern India and quite active even in the north, though July is often a dry or fairly dry month for Delhi and the States in its immediate neighborhood. Does the fury of the monsoon spell doom or does it bring good tidings? Both. The havoc that the monsoon plays in Mumbai and Kolkatta or Gujarat is an annual happening and the rulers of the State usually throw up their hands in the air, in sheer helplessness and inability to deal with what the nature does by throwing torrents, not buckets, of water, and promising to do all they can, almost signifying nothing. That is quite evident, in fact, patent.
The two Chief Ministers of Maharashtra and Gujarat are holidaying overseas at this time of natural disasters in the name of wooing non resident Indians and other foreigners to bring money to their shores. Their crocodile tears over the dying Marathas and Gujaratis in the flood havoc have not yet been shown on news channels at the time of writing in the first week of July, but they surely will be sooner than later. In their absence, the Maharashtra Governor, Mr. S.M.Krishna, a former Chief Minister of Karanataka, has done the honors of announcing grant of relief of Rs. 1 lakh for each dead man, woman or child's family. He has done it with some aplomb from his palatial Raj Bhavan.
In Delhi, there has been some slight flooding when it rained well once or twice since June 28 as the monsoon decided to advance its date with the national capital by a day from June 29; in fact by four or five days as the weatherman had been promising that the monsoon would reach Delhi around July 2. The weatherman is a happy man as the skies are overcast and there is plenty of humidity as the citizens go about their business in a very sweltering weather, but perhaps they do not mind the humidity, which is at times accompanied by cool breeze, especially in the mornings and sometimes in the evenings.
Some small relief as more rains, and heavy ones, will bring woes in their train. At the same time, the new Mayor of Delhi, is feverishly engaged in the clearing of drains and refuse dumps and tarring of roads in the few months, nine more to be precise, in the year long term she has been given by her party, the BJP. Even the Delhi Administration is engaged in sprucing up Delhi in preparation for the grand extravaganza that the Games of the Commonwealth nations will bring to Delhi in the winter of the year 2010.
The rain havoc being a regular feature, just as the drought havoc is year after year or the cyclones that hit some coastal areas and storms that lash other parts of the country, the rulers of India are weighing the pros and cons of the monsoon, the overall benefits compared to the damage that has been done or will be done in the next two or three months. The meteorologists have promised a normal monsoon, give or take four per cent more or less, but the present trends promise bountiful showers over the landmass of India. Will that mean bountiful crops? Will that mean that there will be fewer areas left high and dry? Does that mean that instead of 30 or 40 per cent of deserts or parched lands in north and south, it will be just 10 per cent or less of this? If that happens, the Government of Manmohan Singh will be pleased. So will be Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and her ruling Congress party and their allies. Especially happy will be the Finance Minister, whose tax collections are rising by the day even as his liabilities of providing for the poor, for the starving and malnourished or dying farmers via the route of suicide are going up faster than the cash coming into the treasury. But he is well used and prepared for all this. Only he hopes that the rain gods will be merciful to facilitate his work. Neither will they be excessive nor minimal. He would like them to be even handed.
Even as the Finance Minister is pleased that the jugglery of inflation via the statistics of wholesale price index is well below five per cent, given the fact that the consumer prices or retail prices do not bother him too much. The Reserve Bank has done its job by restricting loans and made them dearer in the eyes of the hardcore economists to curb the inflation for the record even as the trader at different levels is making a fast buck. But that happens all the time all over the world. The citizen has to tighten his or her belt. With the vocal middle class now making a lot of money, the percentage of cost of food in his income is believed to be diminishing. The poor may not be earning more, but they are not vocal. They find a mention in news analysis only. The monsoon session of Parliament will present an opportunity to the government to claim that all is well, all is honkey dorey, they have done their home work and they have taken all the measures they could. India is recording a growth rate of 10 per cent a year, with manufacturing much above that level and services, especially outsourcing of information technology, is rising at 25 to 30 per cent even as exports might be marginally down. But the national saving rate is 23 per cent or more, foreign remittances are very high, foreign investment in manufacturing and stock market very robust. As much as $5 billion has been invested by foreign funds in the first six months of the year and $8 to 10 billion more could come in the rest of the year. That has taken the stock markets to a new high of close to 15,000 of the Bombay Sensex, though there will be repeated corrections in the weeks and months, ups and downs.
Overall foreign investment is expected to $30 billion this year, almost twice as much as last year and foreign currency reserves could rise to $250 billion by the end of the year. Much investment is coming into infrastructure and Indian special economic zones are on the bounce again after a few hiccups. The scenario seems to be rosy in the flash of the moment. Will it be sustained? That is the question.
The two Chief Ministers of Maharashtra and Gujarat are holidaying overseas at this time of natural disasters in the name of wooing non resident Indians and other foreigners to bring money to their shores. Their crocodile tears over the dying Marathas and Gujaratis in the flood havoc have not yet been shown on news channels at the time of writing in the first week of July, but they surely will be sooner than later. In their absence, the Maharashtra Governor, Mr. S.M.Krishna, a former Chief Minister of Karanataka, has done the honors of announcing grant of relief of Rs. 1 lakh for each dead man, woman or child's family. He has done it with some aplomb from his palatial Raj Bhavan.
In Delhi, there has been some slight flooding when it rained well once or twice since June 28 as the monsoon decided to advance its date with the national capital by a day from June 29; in fact by four or five days as the weatherman had been promising that the monsoon would reach Delhi around July 2. The weatherman is a happy man as the skies are overcast and there is plenty of humidity as the citizens go about their business in a very sweltering weather, but perhaps they do not mind the humidity, which is at times accompanied by cool breeze, especially in the mornings and sometimes in the evenings.
Some small relief as more rains, and heavy ones, will bring woes in their train. At the same time, the new Mayor of Delhi, is feverishly engaged in the clearing of drains and refuse dumps and tarring of roads in the few months, nine more to be precise, in the year long term she has been given by her party, the BJP. Even the Delhi Administration is engaged in sprucing up Delhi in preparation for the grand extravaganza that the Games of the Commonwealth nations will bring to Delhi in the winter of the year 2010.
The rain havoc being a regular feature, just as the drought havoc is year after year or the cyclones that hit some coastal areas and storms that lash other parts of the country, the rulers of India are weighing the pros and cons of the monsoon, the overall benefits compared to the damage that has been done or will be done in the next two or three months. The meteorologists have promised a normal monsoon, give or take four per cent more or less, but the present trends promise bountiful showers over the landmass of India. Will that mean bountiful crops? Will that mean that there will be fewer areas left high and dry? Does that mean that instead of 30 or 40 per cent of deserts or parched lands in north and south, it will be just 10 per cent or less of this? If that happens, the Government of Manmohan Singh will be pleased. So will be Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and her ruling Congress party and their allies. Especially happy will be the Finance Minister, whose tax collections are rising by the day even as his liabilities of providing for the poor, for the starving and malnourished or dying farmers via the route of suicide are going up faster than the cash coming into the treasury. But he is well used and prepared for all this. Only he hopes that the rain gods will be merciful to facilitate his work. Neither will they be excessive nor minimal. He would like them to be even handed.
Even as the Finance Minister is pleased that the jugglery of inflation via the statistics of wholesale price index is well below five per cent, given the fact that the consumer prices or retail prices do not bother him too much. The Reserve Bank has done its job by restricting loans and made them dearer in the eyes of the hardcore economists to curb the inflation for the record even as the trader at different levels is making a fast buck. But that happens all the time all over the world. The citizen has to tighten his or her belt. With the vocal middle class now making a lot of money, the percentage of cost of food in his income is believed to be diminishing. The poor may not be earning more, but they are not vocal. They find a mention in news analysis only. The monsoon session of Parliament will present an opportunity to the government to claim that all is well, all is honkey dorey, they have done their home work and they have taken all the measures they could. India is recording a growth rate of 10 per cent a year, with manufacturing much above that level and services, especially outsourcing of information technology, is rising at 25 to 30 per cent even as exports might be marginally down. But the national saving rate is 23 per cent or more, foreign remittances are very high, foreign investment in manufacturing and stock market very robust. As much as $5 billion has been invested by foreign funds in the first six months of the year and $8 to 10 billion more could come in the rest of the year. That has taken the stock markets to a new high of close to 15,000 of the Bombay Sensex, though there will be repeated corrections in the weeks and months, ups and downs.
Overall foreign investment is expected to $30 billion this year, almost twice as much as last year and foreign currency reserves could rise to $250 billion by the end of the year. Much investment is coming into infrastructure and Indian special economic zones are on the bounce again after a few hiccups. The scenario seems to be rosy in the flash of the moment. Will it be sustained? That is the question.
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