DIFFICULT TIMES AHEAD FOR BJP AND LEFT

July 20, 2007 (Press Release) -- In stock markets curves are watched carefully to understand how some stocks are rising while others are falling or remain static, same is probably true about political parties also if one were to produce graphs indicating rise or fall of different political parties. It is no secret that the fortunes of Bhartiya Janta Party and NDA had touched peak during elections held in 1998 and ruled Delhi for six years. The curve, however voters that India was shinning. Obviously the shine was missing for majority of people.

This decline is continuing and the biggest loss is that National Democratic Alliance has literally been broken and many constituents are looking for alternatives before they go for afresh poll in 2009. This was reflected most powerfully during the presidential poll. Groups like Trinumul congress, Telugu Desam, Lok Dal of Chauthala who had kept BJP Government at Centre going for six years have decided to abstain this time. The more upsetting was the decision by Shiv Sena and National Conference to vote for UPA or Congress nominee for the office of President Ms Pratibha Patil.

It must be difficult for BJP to understand why these parties have now decided to ditch them. There is however no problem in reaching the right conclusion that BJP led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was acceptable to allies, but party led by Mr. LK Advani and dominated by Rastriya Swayam Sewak Sangh who have installed during his term had tried to steer BJP towards a moderate path by presenting soft face of Hindu. This however changed after BJP suffered setback in the poll and went back to its old agenda. This was expected to help them in winning back UP, but it has not been the case and time has come when BJP should see the writing on the wall.

But NDA is not the only combination, which is on a downward curve, the same hold's good for the leftists who secured highest number of seats in Lok Sabha in Elections held in 2004. They are now being hit by problems like two chief ministers ruling in States under their control moving in opposite directions. While West Bengal Chief Minister Budhdev Bhattacharya is displacing farmers to set up industries in West Bengal, Chief Minister of Kerala is demolishing tea estate owned by TATA on the plea that they have encroached upon the government land.

There are other dangerous signals for CPM. In West Bengal as their allies in the Left Front and former Chief Minister Jyoti Basu are upset with the Chief Minister and have made their unhappiness known to Central leadership. The left [parties like CPI-M at one time known for their dedication and discipline are becoming prone to in fighting and personality cult. Even extreme steps like expulsion of Chief Minister and State party president from politbureau has not helped. Charges of corruption and in fighting have become a part of kerala politics.

Things unfortunately are no better at Center in CPI-M where leadership after rejecting several names for the post of President finally settled on a name which has caused lot of discomfort for all members of alliance because of the dirt that opposition was able to dig up about her involvement in scandals while she was active in Maharashtra politics and was running a bank. It is true that none of the charges against her have been proved, but there is no doubt that these charges have left a bad taste with highest office in the country becoming a subject of controversy.

If selection of candidate for the post of President was a disaster, a bad beginning has been made in suggesting for the post of vice president. The statement by Mr Prakash Karat that vice president need not be a politician because he does not have to tackle political issues has created controversy. He conveniently forgot that Vice President may have to share the burden of the office of President in case the vacancy arises and as such the argument put forward by Mr Karat carried no conviction.

But those who know the working of CPI-M says that his real target was the candidates whose names were being mentioned for the post of Vice President belonging to CPI and CPI-M. after all it was CPI-M alone which had prevented Mr Jyoti Basu from becoming a Prime Minister few years back. To say the least, the clear conclusion is that CPI-M is slipping and is unable to carry conviction with intellectuals whose backing for them has been crucial in the past.

Confusion is not limited to management of political equations it also comes out glaringly on issues relating to foreign policy. For instance left misses no opportunity to find fault with any attempt to improve relation with USA and Israel, but is totally quiet about action by China and Russia. For instance not a word has been spoken about support by China to Pakistan in terms of defence stores as well as nuclear and ballistic technology. It also has kept quiet about decision by Russia to supply engines for a fighter plane being jointly developed by China and Pakistan. Such blinkered version to say the least is not likely to carry conviction with masse in general and thinking public in particular.

We as such can see many political curves on downward course but no graph is moving up.