World Motorcycles Forecasts for 2011 & 2016

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News Archive > 2007 > Nov > 3
Demand for motorcycles worldwide will rise 5.4 percent annually to 55.7 million units in 2011
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India, Republic of (Press Release) November 3, 2007 -- Global demand to rise 5.4% annually through 2011

Demand for motorcycles worldwide will rise 5.4 percent annually to 55.7 million units in 2011, with growth emanating from a mix of developed market incremental improvements and emerging market expansions. Demand for all categories of motorcycles is expected to remain healthy, despite the anticipated slowdown in key markets. China, for example, the largest motorcycle market and producer in unit terms, is rapidly transitioning away from motorcycles toward cars, and in the process flooding the world market with motorcycle exports. In contrast, rising fuel prices and increasing restrictions on car use are favoring motorcycles in developed markets. The market for large and expensive high displacement motorcycles will remain strong through 2011, but concerns regarding demand have emerged due to the aging of the customer base and rising insurance costs, especially in the US and Western Europe.

Higher value products dominate Triad market

Two separate motorcycle markets exist. The first is centered in the industrialized Triad (i.e., the US, Japan and Western Europe), where motorcycles are seen as pleasure vehicles by consumers who already have one or more automobiles. These motorcycles on average tend to be larger, more powerful machines which cost on average about $5,000 to $6,500 (in the US and Europe), and somewhat less in Japan. The other, much larger market in unit terms, is found in the emerging economies of the Asia/Pacific, Latin America and Africa/Mideast regions, where motorcycles are seen as primary family and work vehicles. These vehicles are cheaper, smaller and less powerful than Triad motorcycles.

Demand shifting toward light motorcycles in key Asia/Pacific region

Unlike the light vehicle industry, which has consolidated down to a handful of key global players, numerous motorcycle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) exist, especially in the Asia/ Pacific region, which represents the heart of global light motorcycle demand. However, competitive intensity is increasing, as evidenced by ongoing price wars in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets. Furthermore, restrictions on motorcycle use in large metropolitan areas of China and some other Asia/Pacific countries is causing a shift in demand away from urban areas to rural markets, which is causing a resulting change in product mix. Demand is moving away from scooters, mopeds and minibikes toward more robust and powerful light motorcycles, which better suit rural transportation needs.

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Keywords:
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