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General Electric: Toxic Asset?
General Electric: Toxic Asset?
By walterpearce on May 17, 2009 United States of America
General Electric (NYSE: GE) continues to be pitched year after year as the safe way to go for all investors. Independent analyst Neil George warns: Don't get snookered.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
(Free-Press-Release.com) May 17, 2009 --
Alexandria, Virginia, 2009. General Electric (NYSE: GE) has for generations remained a staple stock for many investors. As a leading component of the S&P 500 at just shy of 2 percent of its weighting, as well as a big driver of the Dow and other indexes, GE has become a must own stock - for brokers, individual investors and mutual fund managers alike.
But, independent analyst Neil George asks, why is it considered "must own" when its investors continue to get whacked? So far this year, the stock is down over 16.5 percent compared to just a few ticks down for the S&P 500.
According to George, who runs the website Stocks That Pay You, it's a similar story over the last 12 months, with GE out-losing the general market index by over 61 percent.
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The damage isn't limited to those who own individual GE shares. If you happen to own US stock funds from Vanguard, Dodge & Cox, T. Rowe Price, Fidelity and many, many more that hold GE stock, you're not just losing money - you're losing more than the general market.
"GE has been toxic for your portfolio over the last one-, five- and ten year periods," George says, "but let's look at what's still coming."
Over the coming 3 years, beginning within the next few months, GE has to roll over some $250 billion in publicly placed bonds and bank loans. That compares poorly with the company's current market capitalization at a mere 143 billion dollars.
Worse of course is that the fixed debt
of the company is nearly 500 percent of its net common equity, so if indeed it was a bank, George says, “Even the US Federal Reserve's relatively mild stress test would have kicked the you know what out of this company.”
What's causing this major, supposedly well-diversified industrial to fare so poorly? George points to the make up of GE's revenue flows.
The biggest chunks of revenues for the last fiscal year were capital and consumer finance. Add in GE's entertainment units, and the combination swells to over 46 percent of total revenue.
So, George reasons, with media getting stuck with lower ad revenues and diminishing audiences - on top of the known challenges in credit markets - no wonder GE has deeper issues that are kept behind the window dressing of its industrial and other technological product and business lines.
Raising $250 billion to just roll over current debt is going to be daunting - especially given that GE's cash position has fallen to as little as $15 billion. And with its current accounts payable running at over $23 billion, George wonders how GE can pay its bills this quarter, let alone refinance its longer-term debt.
Sell it, George advises, and stay away. And he recommends checking your stock mutual funds. If you see GE, George says, there had better be some other truly stellar performers in the fund's portfolio to make up for this holding - otherwise it's time to sell it as well.
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