An earthquake capable of causing widespread destruction within the next 30 years will hit California, scientists have concluded.
According to the first geological forecast of its kind, the chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger tremor, striking before 2038 is more than 99 per cent.
“New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.” The calculations give a daunting forecast and according to Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report, almost guarantees the quake will occur.
Los Angeles and San Francisco are more than 63 per cent likely to experience such a quake.
An earthquake the size and capability of a 6.7 quake would be the size of the disaster that occurred in L.A.’s San Fernando Valley in 1994. The quake was also a 6.7 magnitude and cost 72 people their lives, injuring 9,000 more. $25 billion in damages were left in miles of debris and wreckage in the metropolitan area.
"It's near certainty that we are going to have a potentially damaging earthquake somewhere in the region in the next 30 years," said Field.
California, which straddles two major tectonic plates, is one of the world's most active regions with more than 300 faults. It experiences thousands of quakes a year, though many are too small to be felt.
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